The Impact of AI on Macroeconomy and Financial Stability

2025 Banque de France FFJ LAB Winter Conference

The growing mobilization of big data and the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) are profoundly transforming the financial sector and the global economy. Their impact is expected to intensify, reshaping both financial markets and macroeconomic dynamics. Japan, a pioneer in digital finance through innovations such as cryptocurrencies and their regulation, is emblematic of this evolution. Meanwhile, the dominance of the US and China in digital finance raises questions about the strategic positioning of Japan and Europe in the digital era.

AI enables market participants to exploit new forms of data — textual, visual, or otherwise — offering opportunities to enhance market efficiency if information quality is preserved. Yet, this reliance on algorithms also introduces new risks, including correlated decision-making, potential algorithmic collusion, and significant environmental costs linked to data processing.

Beyond finance, AI promises considerable productivity gains in manufacturing, notably through robotics, and in services such as IT or publishing. These advances could reshape competitiveness and international trade patterns, particularly in services. However, empirical evidence on employment effects remains limited: it is uncertain whether AI will primarily substitute or complement human labor, and which skill groups will be most affected.

Overall, AI’s diffusion could have lasting consequences for potential growth, inflation, and monetary policy. In this context, the BdF-FFJ joint laboratory seeks to bring together researchers, central bankers, industrial players, and financial practitioners to advance understanding of these transformations and develop informed policy recommendations.

The workshop is supported by the Banque de France-Fondation France-Japon Lab, the Canon Institute for Global Studies (CIGS), Crédit Agricole Group, the Embassy of France in Japan, the Embassy of Japan in France, the Bank of Japan, and the German Institute for Japanese Studies (DIJ).

PROGRAM

13:30-14:00 Opening remarks 

Toshihiko Fukui (CIGS), H. E. Ms Béatrice Lefraper du Hellen (Ambassador of France to Japan), Koji Nakamura (Executive Director of the Bank of Japan), Sébastien Lechevalier (DIJ & EHESS)

14:00-15:00 Keynote speech

Akihisa Shiozaki (House of Representatives of Japan)

15:00-15:15 Coffee break

15:15-16:30 Roundtable 1: Impacts of AI on the economy: a sectoral approach

Moderator: Akinari Horii (CIGS)

Panelists: Marie Briere (Amundi), Robert Alan Feldman (Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities), Toshinori Kurihara (PwC Research Institute (Japan) LLC), Yutaka Soejima (SBI Financial & Economic Research Institute)

16:30-16:45 Coffee break

16:45-18:00 Roundtable 2: Impacts of AI: a policy-oriented approach

Moderator: Kotaro Iwasaki (Embassy of Japan in France)

Panelists: Félix von Helden (Ultra Tendency-EBD Digital Committee), Akane Enatsu (NICMR), Keita Nishiyama (The University of Tokyo), Takeo Hoshi (The University of Tokyo), Stéphane Latouche (Banque de France)

18:00-18:15 Closing remarks

Arthur Sogno Pèes (Banque de France & Embassy of France in Japan), Akinari Horii (CIGS)